SMARTcargo Daily Air Cargo Brief — June 16, 2026
Industry Pulse: Global rates rose +2% MoM in June but sit -1% YoY (WorldACD). Tariff headwinds and Middle East disruptions are softening transpacific demand even as Asia–Europe lanes surge.
Route Trends: China–HK to US tonnage is -11% YoY and -15% from March peak; freighters redeploying to Asia–Europe, where China–HK volumes hit +15% YoY.
Charter Spot Rates (per kg):
• Transpacific (Asia–US): ~$5.19 (Asia ex-China, +10% MoM; China–HK ~$4.29, -16% YoY)
• Asia–Europe: ~$5.20 (firming)
• Transatlantic: ~$3.30 (stable)
Global avg: ~$2.90/kg (-1% YoY, WorldACD)
Jet A Watch: US avg $7.77/gal (Jun 16). Global fuel ~$138.86/bbl (-5.1% WoW). Surcharges 15–25% of AWB.
Top Story: IATA cut its 2026 cargo volume forecast from +2.4% to +0.2%, citing Middle East disruptions and tariff pressure—while raising cargo revenue outlook to $162bn (+7.2% YoY) as yields firm.
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Bjarki Arnarson
(SMARTcargo)about 2 months ago
Industry Pulse: Week 22 volumes dropped -9% WoW on overlapping global holidays, recovering mid-June (WorldACD). Tariffs pushed supply ahead of demand for the first time in 19 months (Xeneta).
Route Trends: Asia–N. America flows fell 4.7% for a second straight month. Freighter capacity shifting to Asia–Europe on early-peak demand.
Charter Spot Rates (per kg):
• Transpacific (Asia–US): ~$5.70 (softening; tariff demand hit)
• Asia–Europe: ~$4.80 (firming; early-peak pull)
• Transatlantic: n/a (capacity rebuilding)
Global avg: $2.98/kg (2026 high)
Jet A Watch: US avg $7.74/gal (GlobalAir, Jun 17). Global jet fuel ~$138.86/bbl (IATA). Fuel surcharges 30–60% of AWB.
Top Story: Asia–N. America volumes fell 4.7% in June — second consecutive drop and first demand-supply inversion in 19 months — as US tariffs and de minimis changes reshape cargo flows (IATA/Xeneta).
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Bjarki Arnarson
(SMARTcargo)about 2 months ago
Industry Pulse: Global airfreight volumes softening post-frontloading peak; WorldACD avg $3.17/kg (April), cooling in June. IATA warns ME disruptions and fuel costs halved 2026 airline profitability.
Route Trends: Asia–Europe elevated as ME rerouting squeezes belly capacity. EU de minimis frontloading briefly buoyed transpacific; China–US faces 30%+ revenue decline.
Charter Spot Rates (per kg):
• Transpacific (Asia–US): ~$7.37 (softening; TAC Index)
• Asia–Europe: ~$5.20 (~2× pre-war levels)
• Transatlantic: firming (EU pre-ship driver)
Global avg: ~$3.17/kg (easing; WorldACD)
Jet A Watch: US avg $7.74/gal June (GlobalAir.com). Global jet fuel ~$138.86/bbl (−5.1% WoW, IATA). Fuel surcharges 30–35% of AWB.
Top Story: IATA (June 7) warned ME disruptions and fuel costs cut airline profitability in half for 2026 — headwind for cargo operators on rerouted lanes.
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Bjarki Arnarson
(SMARTcargo)about 2 months ago
Industry Pulse: Global rates rose +2% MoM in June but sit -1% YoY (WorldACD). Tariff headwinds and Middle East disruptions are softening transpacific demand even as Asia–Europe lanes surge.
Route Trends: China–HK to US tonnage is -11% YoY and -15% from March peak; freighters redeploying to Asia–Europe, where China–HK volumes hit +15% YoY.
Charter Spot Rates (per kg):
• Transpacific (Asia–US): ~$5.19 (Asia ex-China, +10% MoM; China–HK ~$4.29, -16% YoY)
• Asia–Europe: ~$5.20 (firming)
• Transatlantic: ~$3.30 (stable)
Global avg: ~$2.90/kg (-1% YoY, WorldACD)
Jet A Watch: US avg $7.77/gal (Jun 16). Global fuel ~$138.86/bbl (-5.1% WoW). Surcharges 15–25% of AWB.
Top Story: IATA cut its 2026 cargo volume forecast from +2.4% to +0.2%, citing Middle East disruptions and tariff pressure—while raising cargo revenue outlook to $162bn (+7.2% YoY) as yields firm.
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Bjarki Arnarson
(SMARTcargo)about 2 months ago
Industry Pulse: Global tonnage eased -7% WoW in late April; YTD +4% YoY (WorldACD). Jet fuel — not demand — is now the primary rate driver; global avg reached $3.29/kg, +37% YoY.
Route Trends: Asian shippers are shifting Europe-bound cargo to sea-air via US West Coast to cut costs. Gulf carrier capacity remains ~33% below year-ago levels, constraining Middle East and transpacific options.
Charter Spot Rates (per kg):
• Transpacific (Asia–US): ~$5.91 (TAC proxy, early Apr; firming)
• Asia–Europe: ~$5.30 (May proxy; softening)
• Transatlantic: ~$3.20 (benchmark; steady)
Global avg: $3.29/kg (+37% YoY, WorldACD wk 18)
Jet A Watch: US avg $7.80/gal Jun 2026 (IATA). Global jet fuel ~$146/bbl. Fuel surcharges 30–60% of AWB.
Top Story: Analysts project strong H2 2026 air cargo recovery led by Asia e-commerce and AI component demand; tariff impacts expected milder than initially feared (Xeneta/Flexport).
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Bjarki Arnarson
(SMARTcargo)about 2 months ago
Industry Pulse: Global volumes +2% YoY late May; rates flat at $3.23/kg (WorldACD Wk 21). IATA cut its 2026 cargo growth forecast to +0.2% (from +2.6%) on Middle East disruptions; revenue still $162bn (+7.2% YoY) as yields firm (IATA).
Route Trends: Asia–Europe demand rising as EU shippers front-load ahead of July 1 de minimis abolition. Transpacific tight; Asia–Europe rates plateaued in May after Q1 surge.
Charter Spot Rates (per kg):
• Transpacific (Asia–US): ~$7.37 (+45.1% YoY)
• Asia–Europe: ~$5.71 (+30.1% YoY)
• Transatlantic: firming on tight belly lift
Global avg: $3.23/kg (WorldACD Wk 21)
Jet A Watch: US ~$3.98/gal May (Argus). Global $146.25/bbl (+3.3% WoW, IATA). Fuel surcharges ~20–40% of AWB.
Top Story: EU abolishes its €150 de minimis exemption July 1 for a flat €3/item fee — driving a pre-deadline cargo surge to Europe. France's parcel tax already cut ~50 freighter flights/week at CDG.
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Bjarki Arnarson
(SMARTcargo)about 2 months ago
Industry Pulse: Global spot rates hit $3.40/kg in May (+41% YoY); demand +4% YoY, capacity +1% YoY (Xeneta). Gulf disruptions and AI-hardware shipments remain key rate drivers.
Route Trends: Transpacific firm on semiconductor and data-center demand; Asia–Europe tonnage up +7% YoY despite Gulf reroutes. Transatlantic softening as summer belly supply builds.
Charter Spot Rates (per kg):
• Transpacific (Asia–US): firming (AI demand; spot n/a)
• Asia–Europe: ~$5.15–5.30/kg (+60–100% vs. pre-conflict) (Freightos)
• Transatlantic: softening (summer belly supply)
Global avg: $3.40/kg (+41% YoY, May) (Xeneta)
Jet A Watch: US avg $7.79/gal June. Global ~$146/bbl. Surcharges 18–22% of AWB.
Top Story: Xeneta flags May as 2026's likely rate peak; $3.40/kg avg (+41% YoY). June moderation expected as MESA carriers rebuild capacity and summer belly supply returns.
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Bjarki Arnarson
(SMARTcargo)2 months ago
Industry Pulse: Global air cargo tonnage was flat WoW in week 21 (May 18–24), +2% YoY, as worldwide avg rates held at $3.23/kg (+35% YoY) on sustained fuel cost pressure and tight capacity (WorldACD). April closed at a 2026 rate high of $3.17/kg (+28% YoY).
Route Trends: Middle East airspace disruptions since May 4 continue forcing Gulf-lane reroutes and space denials. Asia–Europe tonnage +7% YoY; high rates are nudging some Asian shippers to sea-air combos via US West Coast gateways.
Charter Spot Rates (per kg):
• Transpacific (Asia–US): ~$5.91 (+9% WoW)
• Asia–Europe: ~$4.60–5.00 (+28% YoY)
• Transatlantic: firming / surcharge-driven
Global avg: $3.23/kg (+35% YoY) (WorldACD wk 21)
Jet A Watch: US avg $7.94/gal June 2026 (GlobalAir). Global jet fuel ~$141.64/bbl (IATA). Fuel surcharges ~20–25% of AWB.
Top Story: Renewed Gulf conflict on May 4 forced airspace closures, cancellations, and cargo reroutes across Middle East lanes; carriers warn elevated oil prices will keep air cargo rates high through Q3 2026.
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Bjarki Arnarson
(SMARTcargo)2 months ago
Industry Pulse: Global chargeable weight fell 3% WoW (wk 19) as Golden Week and Mother's Day surges faded; avg yield eased to $3.22/kg, still +YoY (WorldACD).
Route Trends: Middle East airspace closures post-May 4 UAE incident cut ~16% of global capacity. Transpacific high-tech cargo from SE Asia/Taiwan continues to surge.
Charter Spot Rates (per kg):
• Transpacific (Asia–US): ~$6.94 (HK–US WC; easing WoW, +YoY — Baltic/TAC)
• Asia–Europe: ~$5.85 (HK–EU; softening WoW, elevated YoY — Baltic/TAC)
• Transatlantic: firming (ME reroutes tightening belly capacity)
Global avg: $3.22/kg (−3% WoW, +YoY — WorldACD)
Jet A Watch: US avg $7.94/gal May 28 (−$0.06 MoM). Global jet fuel ~$163/bbl (IATA). Fuel surcharges 18–24% of AWB.
Top Story: Iranian strikes on UAE (May 4) reversed air cargo recovery, causing a 16% global capacity shortfall; rerouting ongoing.
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Bjarki Arnarson
(SMARTcargo)2 months ago
Industry Pulse: April closed at a 2026-high $3.17/kg (+28% YoY); May has eased — wk 19 tonnage fell -3% WoW as Golden Week & Mother's Day surges ended. (WorldACD)
Route Trends: Asia Pacific outbound dropped -5% WoW in wk 19; Central & South America -19% as floriculture normalised. Middle East conflict trims global capacity -1%, diverting volume via South/SE Asia hubs.
Charter Spot Rates (per kg):
• Transpacific (Asia–US): ~$5.48 (softening WoW)
• Asia–Europe: ~$5.40 (easing from peak)
• Transatlantic: firming; surcharges offsetting base softness
Global avg: $2.50/kg (wk 21, stable WoW; -2% YoY vol-adj) (WorldACD)
Jet A Watch: US avg $8.57/gal May (−$0.06 MoM). Global jet fuel ~$163/bbl (IATA). Fuel surcharges 30–60% of AWB.
Top Story: IATA forecasts 71.6M tonnes for 2026 (+2.4% YoY), as air cargo acts as "shock absorber" amid ongoing tariff volatility — Asia–North America corridors under most pressure.
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Bjarki Arnarson
(SMARTcargo)2 months ago
Industry Pulse: Global tonnages slipped 2% WoW in week 21 after a 5% two-week rebound; rates +4% YoY, capacity +7% YoY (WorldACD). Post-Golden Week softness and fading Mother’s Day flower traffic cooled volumes — annual pricing holds firm.
Route Trends: MESA–Europe up +26% YoY (wks 20–21), Dubai at +97% YoY as Red Sea disruptions sustain sea-air rerouting. Asia–Pacific fell 5% WoW; transpacific rates bucked the dip.
Charter Spot Rates (per kg):
• Transpacific (Asia–US): ~$5.91 (+9% WoW)
• Asia–Europe: ~$5.35 (SEA–Europe, near Apr highs)
• Transatlantic: firming; surcharge-driven
Global avg: $3.17/kg (+28% YoY, Apr peak)
Jet A Watch: US avg $7.96/gal May 25 (up YoY). Global ~$162.55/bbl. Surcharges 30–60% of AWB.
Top Story: China Eastern Cargo launched Toronto–Chongqing (YYZ–CKG) direct freighter service May 22 under Canada–China deal allowing 20 cargo flights/week — new transpacific capacity for e-commerce.
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