SMARTcargo Daily Air Cargo Brief — July 8, 2026
Industry Pulse: Global tonnage held flat WoW, rates steady near $3.23/kg, as AI-chip demand offsets softer general cargo (WorldACD).
Route Trends: Middle East capacity rebuilds post-ceasefire — Cathay Cargo restarts HK-Dubai/HK-Riyadh freighter service Sept 1. Asia-Europe eased slightly WoW but stays well above last year; Asia-N.America stays elevated on AI-hardware demand.
Charter Spot Rates (per kg):
• Transpacific (Asia-US): ~$5.91 (TAC Index proxy, up sharply YoY)
• Asia-Europe: ~$5.26 (-2% WoW, +38% YoY)
• Transatlantic: softening as Gulf capacity returns, deflationary vs Q1 highs
Global avg: $3.23/kg (flat WoW, WorldACD)
Jet A Watch: US avg ~$3.57/gal (June, Gulf Coast). Global jet fuel ~$117/bbl (July 1, down ~18% MoM, IATA). Fuel surcharges 30-60% of AWB.
Top Story: Saudia Group signed with Boeing for four 777-200 freighters (July 6), latest Gulf fleet move as capacity rebuilds post-ceasefire.
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Bjarki Arnarson
(SMARTcargo)29 days ago
Industry Pulse: Baltic Air Freight Index dipped 2.7% WoW (July 6), still 27.7% above year-ago levels; WorldACD pegs global spot rates at $3.71/kg for June as YoY growth cooled from 49% to 43%.
Route Trends: China–Europe volumes slipped 8-9% WoW on softer EU demand; US-origin lanes stayed firm, Chicago outbound up 10.1% WoW (+49.6% YoY). Gulf carriers keep rebuilding capacity as others avoid Middle East routing.
Charter Spot Rates (per kg):
• Transpacific (Asia–US): ~$6.60 (-9% WoW)
• Asia–Europe: ~$4.55 (-2% WoW)
• Transatlantic: n/a — US demand firming
Global avg: $3.71/kg (+43% YoY)
Jet A Watch: US Gulf Coast avg ~$3.57/gal (June), little changed. Global jet fuel $116.63/bbl (July 1, IATA), -17.6% MoM on eased Mideast risk premium.
Top Story: DHL Group raised its 2026 profit outlook after strong prelim Q2 results led by its express division — bullish for peak season demand.
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Bjarki Arnarson
(SMARTcargo)about 1 month ago
Industry Pulse: Global tonnage held flat; Baltic Air Freight Index eased 2.7% WoW but stayed +27.7% YoY (Baltic Air Freight Index). Capacity tight into peak season.
Route Trends: Asia-Europe softened as Shanghai/Hong Kong eased; Dubai-Europe fell 8% WoW to $3.79/kg, still +106% YoY on Mideast reroutes. US lanes firm — Chicago outbound +10.1% WoW, +49.6% YoY.
Charter Spot Rates (per kg):
• Transpacific (Asia-US): ~$4.39 (+30% YoY)
• Asia-Europe: ~$5.26 (-2% WoW, +38% YoY)
• Transatlantic: n/a; Chicago proxy firming (+10.1% WoW)
Global avg: $2.66/kg (+20% YoY)
Jet A Watch: US avg $3.57/gal (June, Gulf Coast). Global jet fuel ~$117/bbl (-17.6% MoM, Mideast ceasefire eased risk premium). Surcharges add ~$0.45-0.70/kg on long-haul lanes.
Top Story: DHL Group raised its 2026 profit outlook on strong Q2 express results, as Lufthansa Cargo battles handling delays at Frankfurt/Munich and grounded A321s.
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Bjarki Arnarson
(SMARTcargo)about 1 month ago
Industry Pulse: Global tonnage held flat WoW, rates steady near $3.23/kg, as AI-chip demand offsets softer general cargo (WorldACD).
Route Trends: Middle East capacity rebuilds post-ceasefire — Cathay Cargo restarts HK-Dubai/HK-Riyadh freighter service Sept 1. Asia-Europe eased slightly WoW but stays well above last year; Asia-N.America stays elevated on AI-hardware demand.
Charter Spot Rates (per kg):
• Transpacific (Asia-US): ~$5.91 (TAC Index proxy, up sharply YoY)
• Asia-Europe: ~$5.26 (-2% WoW, +38% YoY)
• Transatlantic: softening as Gulf capacity returns, deflationary vs Q1 highs
Global avg: $3.23/kg (flat WoW, WorldACD)
Jet A Watch: US avg ~$3.57/gal (June, Gulf Coast). Global jet fuel ~$117/bbl (July 1, down ~18% MoM, IATA). Fuel surcharges 30-60% of AWB.
Top Story: Saudia Group signed with Boeing for four 777-200 freighters (July 6), latest Gulf fleet move as capacity rebuilds post-ceasefire.
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Bjarki Arnarson
(SMARTcargo)about 1 month ago
SMARTcargo Daily Air Cargo Brief — July 6, 2026
Industry Pulse: Global tonnage +9% YoY in June, flat vs. May; spot rates $3.71/kg, +43% YoY (WorldACD).
Route Trends: Middle East–Europe cooling from highs (Dubai–Europe ~$3.79/kg, -8% WoW); AI demand keeps Asia–N.America elevated (+40%+ since late Feb); transatlantic backhauls soften on belly capacity.
Charter Spot Rates (per kg):
• Transpacific (Asia-US): ~$6.60 (China-US, -9% WoW)
• Asia-Europe: ~$4.55 (China-Europe, down from $5.25 peak)
• Transatlantic: softening, backhaul rates down YoY
Global avg: $3.71/kg (+43% YoY, WorldACD)
Jet A Watch: US Gulf Coast $3.57/gal (June). Global ~$116.63/bbl (IATA, Jul 1), -17.6% MoM on Mideast ceasefire. Surcharges easing with crude.
Top Story: Rates stay elevated as Gulf capacity recovers, even as IATA cuts 2026 growth forecast to 0.2% (from 2.6%) on Mideast disruption and fuel shocks; revenue still tracks toward $162B (+7.2% YoY).
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Bjarki Arnarson
(SMARTcargo)about 1 month ago
Industry Pulse: Global tonnage +1% WoW, rates flat near $3.23/kg; MESA and Asia Pacific chargeable weight up double digits YoY (WorldACD).
Route Trends: Gulf hub capacity is recovering post-conflict; Asia-based carriers keep capturing share on Europe–Asia lanes opened during the disruption. Dubai–Europe spot eased slightly WoW.
Charter Spot Rates (per kg):
• Transpacific (Asia–US): ~$5.78 (SE Asia–NA, surging)
• Asia–Europe: ~$4.17 (NE Asia–EU, +30% YoY)
• Transatlantic: ~$2.50–4.20 range (steady, ample bellyhold capacity)
Global avg: $3.23/kg (+35% YoY)
Jet A Watch: US avg $7.50/gal (July, FBO retail). Global jet fuel ~$117/bbl (-2.1% WoW). Fuel surcharges ~15–30% of AWB.
Top Story: IATA slashed its 2026 cargo growth forecast to 0.2% (from 2.6%) as fuel costs jump ~40% to $350B, though revenue is still seen hitting $162B on elevated rates (IATA/Air Cargo Week).
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Bjarki Arnarson
(SMARTcargo)about 1 month ago
Industry Pulse: Global air cargo rates rose +1% WoW to $3.24/kg per WorldACD, now +35% YoY as fuel costs and tight Mideast capacity pressure pricing.
Route Trends: Gulf capacity is recovering after the June 17 Iran-US ceasefire MOU, narrowing the MESA capacity deficit from -30% to -19% WoW. Asia-Europe lanes stay firm despite returning capacity.
Charter Spot Rates (per kg):
• Transpacific (Asia-US): ~$5.91 (+9% WoW)
• Asia-Europe: ~$5.05 (+8% WoW, +26% YoY)
• Transatlantic: ~$3.20 (TAC Index proxy; fuel-driven firming)
Global avg: $3.24/kg (+35% YoY)
Jet A Watch: Global jet fuel ~$117/bbl (IATA), down 2% WoW, off April's $200+/bbl spike. US avg: n/a this week. Fuel surcharges remain an elevated share of AWB costs.
Top Story: Mideast cargo capacity is rebuilding fast post-MOU, but rates stay elevated (+35% YoY) as Gulf carriers race to restore schedules (WorldACD).
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Bjarki Arnarson
(SMARTcargo)about 1 month ago
Industry Pulse: Global air cargo rates edged +1% WoW in Wk 25 to $3.24/kg (+35% YoY) as MESA lanes reopen post-ceasefire (WorldACD). Spot rates hit $3.75/kg, +47% YoY — demand outpacing returning capacity.
Route Trends: June 17 US-Iran MOU slashed Gulf-to-North America capacity deficit from -28% to -10% in one week. Asia-US cargo tightening with Prime Day demand approaching.
Charter Spot Rates (per kg):
• Transpacific (Asia–US): ~$6.60 (+37% YoY)
• Asia–Europe: ~$4.55 (↓ from $5.25 May peak)
• Transatlantic: firming / NA demand rising
Global avg: $3.75/kg spot (+47% YoY)
Jet A Watch: US avg $3.57/gal June (–11% WoW). Global jet fuel ~$119/bbl. Fuel surcharges ~15–25% of AWB.
Top Story: IATA trimmed its 2026 air cargo growth forecast as Middle East disruptions bite — yet the US-Iran MOU signals bellyhold capacity returning to Gulf lanes. Will recovery soften the +35% YoY yields driving strong H1 revenues?
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Bjarki Arnarson
(SMARTcargo)about 1 month ago
Industry Pulse: Global tonnage rose +1% WoW in week 24; avg rate steady at $3.23/kg (+34% YoY) as Middle East capacity losses keep supply tight (WorldACD). Asia Pacific led regional growth, absorbing diverted volumes.
Route Trends: Asia–Europe is 2026's dominant lane — freighter share at 60% of capacity as European carriers fill Gulf hub gaps. Asia–US spot has risen +1% WoW for five straight weeks.
Charter Spot Rates (per kg):
• Transpacific (Asia–US): ~$7.12 (+1% WoW, +39% YoY)
• Asia–Europe: ~$5.72 (flat WoW, +33% YoY)
• Transatlantic: firming; fuel costs adding pressure
Global avg: $3.23/kg (+34% YoY)
Jet A Watch: US avg $7.59/gal June (−11.4% WoW). Global jet fuel ~$142/bbl. Fuel surcharges 30–60% of AWB.
Top Story: Middle East ceasefire talks cut jet fuel 11.4% WoW, but Gulf capacity shortfalls keep cargo rates elevated well into Q3.
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Bjarki Arnarson
(SMARTcargo)about 1 month ago
Industry Pulse: Global air cargo tonnage rose +1% WoW in wk 24 (Jun 8–14); avg yield flat at $3.23/kg WoW but +34% YoY (WorldACD). Elevated fuel costs and Mideast disruptions continue supporting rates.
Route Trends: Asia–Europe and transpacific lanes firming into late June; Middle East reroutes pressuring capacity via South Asia corridors.
Charter Spot Rates (per kg):
• Transpacific (Asia–US): ~$5.90 (firming; +34% YoY)
• Asia–Europe: ~$5.70 (flat WoW; +39% YoY)
• Transatlantic: ~$3.20 (firming; +16% YoY)
Global avg: $3.23/kg (+34% YoY)
Jet A Watch: US avg $3.57/gal June (down 11% WoW vs. May spike). Global jet fuel ~$141/bbl. Fuel surcharges 30–60% of AWB.
Top Story: Lufthansa Cargo completed LCCevo Phase ALPHA at Frankfurt Airport, activating 80,000 m² of automated facilities as part of its €600M hub modernization — now Europe’s most advanced cargo center.
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Bjarki Arnarson
(SMARTcargo)about 1 month ago
Industry Pulse: Global tonnage +1% WoW in Week 24 (Jun 8–14); average rates flat at $3.23/kg (WorldACD). Gulf carriers at ~70% of pre-war capacity, but rates remain 30%+ above pre-conflict levels amid elevated fuel costs.
Route Trends: Asia–Europe firming — China–EU up 3% WoW to $4.62/kg, still 21% above last year. Transpacific expanding on AI-hardware and e-commerce demand; Gulf reroutes pressure Middle East transit corridors.
Charter Spot Rates (per kg):
• Transpacific (Asia–US): ~$6.20 (+17% YoY)
• Asia–Europe: ~$4.62 (+21% YoY)
• Transatlantic: softening; EU–NA -26% from March peak
Global avg: $3.23/kg (+30% YoY, WorldACD)
Jet A Watch: US Gulf ~$3.57/gal June. Global jet fuel ~$141.64/bbl. Fuel surcharges 15–25% of AWB.
Top Story: IATA cut 2026 air cargo growth forecast from 2.6% to 0.2% on Middle East disruptions and fuel shocks, while projecting cargo revenue to hit $162B (+7.2% YoY).
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